Research

PE Market Dynamics: Beyond the Surface

Posted on | by Hammad

This study examines return and volatility spillovers between different regional private equity markets and investment styles to analyze the dynamics of connectedness. Using the LPX Group’s listed private equity indices from 2004 to 2023, we find significant fluctuations in return and volatility spillovers over time, with peaks occurring during major financial events. Notably, the peaks in the volatility spillovers are more abrupt but less persistent than those in the return spillovers. Our analysis reveals no direct correspondence between return and volatility spillovers, suggesting that they measure different aspects that should be considered in active portfolio management. The LPX America index is a net transmitter for the LPX Europe index, except during specific European events. In addition, the LPX Buyout index is identified as a consistent net transmitter of return spillovers, whereas the LPX Mezzanine index shows higher net volatility spillovers. Conversely, the LPX Venture index is consistently a net receiver, highlighting its diversification potential for both private equity and traditional stock market investors. These findings provide essential insights into portfolio allocation, risk management, and strategic planning in private equity investing.

Authors: Antonio Diaz, Carlos Esparcia, Lars Tegtmeier
Publication date: 2 April 2025
Published in:International Review of Economics & Finance
Volume/ Ausgabe: 
Source download link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056025002503

Tail risks and private equity performance

Posted on | by Robin Jakob

We examine the drivers of private equity in response to the fully exogenous Covid-19 shock, employing listed private equity as a proxy for traditional non-listed private equity. This approach enables us to reliably measure firm characteristics and performance in real-time. Listed private equity firms, on average, underperformed significantly during the crisis, with a performance drop ranging from 9.2 % to 43.6 %, depending on the model used. However, there is substantial cross-sectional variation driven by unique firm-level attributes including access to capital, liquidity, transparency, and ownership structure. Listed private equity with better access to capital and higher transparency shows resilience during the crisis, while higher illiquidity and opacity exacerbate the negative effects. This study offers early evidence on Covid-19′s impact on private equity firms, highlighting value drivers and performance dynamics of this alternative asset class during a period of extreme tail risk.

Authors: Hrvoje Kurtović / Garen Markarian
Publication date: 1 December 2023
Published in: Journal of Empirical Finance
Volume/ Ausgabe: Volume 75
Source download link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092753982300124X

Market-based private equity returns

Posted on | by Robin Jakob

Using the universe of business development companies (BDCs), a unique publicly traded segment of U.S. Private Equity (PE), for the period 1998–2017, we provide the first in-depth examination of their performance and risk-adjusted characteristics and compare our results to contrasting evidence derived from recently wwweloped time series proxies for unlisted PE returns. BDCs exhibit zero alpha, beta of one, and significant exposure to SMB, HML, and CMA factors of 0.5, 0.7, and -0.3, respectively. BDC performance and market beta are sensitive to fund size and leverage. We provide evidence that BDC returns capture both the asset selection and PE ownership elements of the unlisted PE investment strategy. Finally, an event study analysis shows that NAV disclosures become informative only after the adoption of the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 157 (SFAS 157). We posit that BDCs provide a readily available market-based PE benchmark for use by regulators, market participants, and academics.

Authors: Theodosis L. Kallenos / George P. Nishiotis
Publication date: 6 November 2023
Published in: Journal of Banking & Finance
Volume/ Ausgabe: Volume 157
Source download link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426623002339

The Risk and Performance of Listed Private Equity

Posted on | by Robin Jakob

Private equity (PE) risk and performance is a black box for investors, as information is quasi-private during a fund’s life. To overcome this issue, the authors use the universe of listed PEs (LPEs) in US exchanges, which permits the measurement of financial fundamen¬tals based on audited quarterly reports, and the observation of share price performance and volatility on a real-time basis. They first show that LPE performance and valuations are highly correlated to that of unlisted PEs, and hence are a good proxy. LPEs constantly exhibit leverage double that of the broader market while showing no distinctive share price performance. Controlling for standard determinants of returns, LPE firms do not outperform market benchmarks. Using COVID-19 as an exogenous increase in tail risk, PE firms grossly underperformed as markets penalized the riskiness and lack of transparency inherent in PE investments. The problems are likely greater in privately held PEs, where performance is self-reported, not audited, and illiquidity periods last up to 10 or 12 years.

Authors: Hrvoje Kurtovic / Garen Markarian / Patrick Breuer
Publication date: 22 May 2023
Published in: The Journal of Alternative Investments
Volume/ Ausgabe: Volume 26, Issue 1
Source download link: https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijaltinv/early/2023/05/21/jai20231191

Does the day of week effect exist in other asset classes?

Posted on | by Robin Jakob

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the day-of-the-week (DoW) effect in globally listed private equity (LPE) markets using daily data covering the period 2004–2021. Design/methodology /approach: To investigate the existence of the DoW effect in globally LPE markets, ordinary least squares regression, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) regression and robust regressions are used. In addition, robustness audits are conducted by subdividing the sampling period into two sub-periods: pre-financial and post-financial crisis. Findings: Limited statistically significant evidence is found for the DoW effect. By taking time-varying volatility into account, a statistically significant DoW effect can be observed, indicating that the DoW effect is driven by time-varying volatility. Economic significance is captured through visual inspection of average daily returns, which illustrate that Monday returns are lower than the other weekdays. Practical implications: The results have important implications on whether to adopt a DoW strategy for investors in LPE. The findings show that higher returns on selected days of the week for certain indices are possible.

Authors: Marcel Steinborn
Publication date: 26 April 2023
Published in: Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Volume/ Ausgabe:Volume 41, Issue 1
Source download link: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/SEF-12-2021-0517/full/html

PE Performance Around the World

Posted on | by Robin Jakob

This paper looks at the performance of LPX Private Equity indices as proxy for Private Equity (PE) performance in North America, Europe, UK and the World and compares them to their respective regional stock and bond indices fromJanuary 1999 –December 2016. PE has outperformed stocks and bonds in all regions with much higher returns. However, PE also had higher risk compared to stocks and bonds in all regions. On a risk-adjusted basis (Sharpe, Sortino & Omega Ratios), PE has outperformed stocks in all regions of the world. However, PE underperformed bonds in North America, but outperformed bonds in UK and Europe on a risk-adjusted basis. PE also created much higher wealth compared to other asset classes. Overall, results indicate that PE has created tremendous value for their investors.

Authors: Martin Hanby, Srinidhi Kanuri, Anthony Fulmore, Robert Mcleod
Publication date: 20 June 2022
Published in: Journal of Applied Business and Economics
Volume/ Ausgabe: Volume 24(3)
Source download link: https://articlearchives.co/index.php/JABE/article/view/2567/2544